Monday, March 05, 2007

Sean Ness 2007 Tech Forecasts

Back on Jan 31, I was on a panel for Silicon Valley Web Builder and provided some 2007 forecasts (see below). How do you think I'll do? We'll see how I do by the end of the year!

10. The $100 Laptop is a non-starter
9. Reputation (RapLeaf) becomes a valuable online currency
8. OpenID is embraced by a "big player"
7. Twitter mushrooms as its commercial uses are adopted

6. Mobile walled gardens persist

5. Red Herring enters the magazine Dead Pool

4. A news story causes the Internet to crash

3. Second Life peaks and slowly dies off

2. A presidential candidate drops out of the race early due to a scandal hyped within the Web2.0 community.

1. The iPhone flops


Here's a PR 2.0 interview of me talking about item #1. (Fast forward to 3:07 left to see me.)


[#10 - Nov 26 update - WSJ calls the OLPC a failure]

[#8 - Feb 6 Update - Microsoft will support OpenID]

[#7 - June 7 Update - Techdirt explains how to make twitter useful for business]

[#6 - April 18 Update - Orange and Vodafone cripple Nokia's flagship [N95]]

[#5 - June 7 Update - Um, can you figure out how to subscribe from their site?]
[#3 - June 7 Update - Sure looks like they have peaked to me!]

3 comments:

Nathan Dintenfass said...

Do you think the $100 laptop will literally never happen, or just that it won't get as many units in the field as they are hoping? And are you saying just that it won't happen in 2007, or that as a concept it's destined to fail?

Hubber said...

Nowhere near what they expect to sell. Cell phones, baby...it's all about cell phones. Cheap, portable...and already getting lots of use. http://research.microsoft.com/india/msrlectures/Warana+SMS_Toolkit_at_Etel.ppt

ndintenfass said...

Hmm -- not sure how a student would read and write non-trivial homework on a phone UI (which is what the $100 laptop seems to be mostly targeting). SMS is great for discrete tasks, but discovering the world of the Internet and/or writing documents on a phone is painful no matter what age you are.