sean ness: hubber on the west coast

2011-09-05T18:17:00.001-07:00

I've been using Tumblr lately...catch up with me there.

Dundee Hills Tasting (Thursday - Day 6)

2009-06-21T15:35:00.001-07:00

This was the last of our wine tasting for this trip. Six days of tasting over 10 days was enough. Here's where we went...mostly tasting Pinot:

Rex Hill Vineyards
Domaine Drouhin
Domaine Serene
Argyle Winery
Torii Mor
Erath Winery

During this trip we visited 42 wineries..not too bad!

Favorites for me:

AVA - Lake Chelan
Riesling (sweet) - Terra Blanca Winery
Dessert - Zerba Cellars
Cabernet - L'Ecole No. 41
Malbec - Wapato Pint Cellars
Syrah - Lake Chelan Winery
Pinot - Domaine Serene

Lake Chelan AVA Tasting (Tuesday - Day 5)

2009-06-16T17:10:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday, we visited the following wineries in and Manson, WA:

Tsillan Cellars
Vin du Lac
Benson Vineyards
Wapato Point Cellars
Hard Row to Hoe Vineyards
Lake Chelan Winery

is about 3.5 hours east of Seattle and is a vacation destination for many here in Washington. They received the AVA designation about 3 weeks ago. Nice to break it in!

Tomorrow is a drive to Portland/relax day. We pick up again on Thursday with some Williamette Valley Pinot Noir tasting.

Woodinville and Leavenworth Tasting (Monday - Day 4)

2009-06-15T18:02:00.000-07:00

On Monday, we visited:

Chateau St. Michelle (no tasting)
Januik
Gold Digger Cellars (Okanogan Estate)
Kestrel Vintners
Bergdorf Cellars
Pasek Cellars
Maison de Padgett Winery

Time to enjoy the evening happenings of Leavenworth, WA.

Benton City wine tasting (Day 3 - Sunday)

2009-06-15T17:45:00.000-07:00

We visited:

Terra Blanca Winery - great Late Harvest Riesling
Kiona Vineyards
Seth Ryan Winery

Then we drove to Tacoma for some family time.

Walla Walla Wine Tasting, Day 2

2009-06-13T16:05:00.000-07:00

Saturday brought us to:

Basel Cellars
Balboa Winery
Beresan Winery
Waters Winery
Va Piano Vineyards
Trust Cellars
Zerba Cellars (Oregon) - Semillon Ice Wine!
Dunham Cellars
Patrick M. Paul Vineyard
Patit Creek Cellars
Otis Kenyon

Busy day!!!

Walla Walla Wine Tasting

2009-06-13T02:13:00.000-07:00

Friday is finished...here is where we went:

Woodward Canyon Winery
L'Ecole No. 41 Winery
Waterbrook Winery
Three Rivers Winery
Reininger Winery
Amavi Cellars
Spring Valley Vineyard
Slight of Hand
Fort Walla Walla Cellars

More tasting here tomorrow. Sunday = Benton City. Monday = Woodinville and Leavenworth. Tuesday = Lake Chelan. Thursday and Friday = Oregon Pinot. Many wineries to be hit on this trip!

Wolfram Alpha is no Google Killer

2009-05-20T16:53:00.000-07:00

Wolfram Alpha reminds me of other flirtatious "Google killers" from the past couple of years: Powerset, Freebase and Cuil.

I'll set the stage: you are out on the town at a very trendy club and you mozy on up to the bar. You feel flush and entitled and order a high end vodka for your dirty martini (people always tell you that the olive juice kills the premium taste, but what do you care, this is who you are). When you turn back to take in the crowd (and let them take you in) guess who walks up? Wait for it...wait for it...

That's right...Wolfram Alpha! You've been hearing all kinds of stories about WA for weeks now. You think to yourself, "Holy shit! I'm gonna get a peek at this before the masses do!" And so you dive on into the experience and are quickly comforted by being able to find out such things as:

being able to quickly divide the population of Singapore by the population of Hong Kong and get results for the year 2004 and 2007
punching in your birthdate and learning that you are over 14,000 days old!
type in Spokane and learn that it has an elevation of 1873 feet

You keep going and going and going, it sucks you in. This is sooooo cool. At the end of the night you lean in, attempt a kiss on the lips, but just get a cheek, go home and tuck yourself in.

THEN guess what happens?

You wake up, turn on your computer and go right back to using Google.

Wolfram Alpha is good for a twenty minute quicky...but it'll whither away just like the others.

My money is still on Twitter...

What's the most valuable way you care?

2009-03-02T17:11:00.000-08:00

Have you ever been asked a question like that?

Attached to this post is a caring coin (the first ever, as far as IFTF knows). I have received coin #1066; and I'm told that they are unique.

(You can also view this coin here.)

I have already answered the question...and so can you!

At this site you can read how other people have answered this question, including people who've had this particular coin before you. Use the coin's unique number to add your own thoughts, too.

Join a giant conversation about the future of caring. Help us out with your 2 cents, and pass this on to someone who cares.

Thanks!

--Sean

Wines from the weekend

2009-02-22T21:01:00.000-08:00

It is Sunday night and we are back from a weekend trip to the mountains with some friends. We did some damage to our wine inventories.

Friday night:

Saturday night:

Signtific launches!!!

2009-01-29T19:58:00.000-08:00

Reposted from IFTF's Signtific blog: (I suggest that you start at the DISCOVER stage to ease into the system). More fun stuff in the works!

After many month of hard work, we are proud to announce the official launch of Signtific!

Signtific.org is an innovative and dynamic collaborative web-based platform designed for engaging scientists and technologists from all areas of study in identifying disruptive trends. The platform is three-fold: First, Signals are the foundational indicators that point to larger trends and supply the conversation on Signtific. Second, Notebooks are the organizational hubs where you can collect Signals and choose to share your ideas with trusted colleagues. Last, Forecasts are combine signals in your notebook to identify a key trend, disruption, opportunity, or shift in the competitive landscape.

Navigation around Signtific is organized into four categories: "Create", "Discover", "Discuss" and "Experiment." In Create you can start signaling and forecasting. Discover is where you can go to dive into the rich information that other users have created, and where you can comment on, rate, and otherwise interact with site content.

No science is complete without experimentation, so keep an eye out for Experiment going live shortly! In the coming weeks we'll be launching The Lab where you can connect in real-time with colleagues from around the world through science and technology scenarios. We don't want to give away all the cool stuff too quickly so make sure to log in frequently to be a participant.

Finally, one of the most valuable contributions that you can make to Signtific is rating the site's content base. When reading a signal or forecast, click on Submit Rating and you will be asked to rate the signal based on two characteristics: Likelihood (how likely it is that a signal or forecast will occur) and Impact (if the signal or forecast does occur, how important will it be).

Rating content will help users find strong and relevant content, identify outlying signals and forecasts, and help us with our work visualizing Signtific's data - in short, everybody wins when you rate, so get to it!

The Signtific team is looking forward to your contributions, thoughts, and discussions. Check back to the blog for updates where we'll uncover the latest in the world of Signtific, have special guest contributors, interviews, thought-provoking write-ups, and user and affiliation showcases.

Signal On!

-The Signtific Team

Leaders Make the Future - Bob's latest book goes on sale!

2008-12-22T07:45:00.000-08:00

Berrett-Koehler has announced Bob's latest book: Leaders Make the Future - Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World. It will be released in May of 2009.

Their description follows:

• Grounded in the most recent ten-year forecast by the prestigious Institute for the Future
• Identifies the new skills needed to thrive in the next decade
• Provides tools, examples, and advice to help develop your expertise in each of the ten future skills

Some leadership skills are enduring. But to be successful in the future, leaders also need an emerging set of skills uniquely suited to dealing with the challenges of the threshold decade we are entering. Today’s businesses and organizations are operating in a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Though they already seemed stressed to the breaking point, Johansen reminds us that we are also more connected than ever before in our history, but we must fully realize the benefits of that connectivity. In the next decade, leaders will not just see the future—they will make it! But they will not be able to do it alone.

Institute for the Future has been developing ten-year forecasts for some of the world’s top organizations for forty years—it is the only futures group to outlive its own forecasts. Bob Johansen draws on IFTF’s latest forecast (included in this book) to introduce skills that will help leaders see connections in the larger systems of which they are a part, embrace shared assets and opportunities, and cut through the chaos to make a better future. Separate chapters focus on each skill, identifying the new circumstances that make it necessary and providing examples of the skill in action. How adroit are you at dilemma-flipping—turning problems that can’t be permanently solved into opportunities? What is your level of immersive learning ability—the ability to dive into very different physical and online worlds and learn from them? Do you know what a smart mob is and how to organize one? Johansen provides role models, tools, and advice to help you develop these and seven other skills.

We are facing times of unprecedented challenge. Combining research-based forecasts, real-world examples, and his own astute analysis, Bob Johansen helps you identify and acquire the abilities you need to thrive in this difficult world.

It was inevitable that I would end up at the Institute for the Future!

2008-12-10T21:00:00.000-08:00

We were doing some fall cleaning at home and I went through books to keep, donate to charity or give to friends/family. While doing so, I noticed a trend...the future! Take a look at these titles/authors of some of the books that I had read over the years:

Blur: the Speed of Change in the Connected Economy - Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer
Burn Rate: How I Survived the Gold Rush Years on the Internet - Michael Wolf
Detour: The Truth about the Information Superhighway - Michael Sullivan-Trainor
Digital Economy: Promise and Peril in the Age of Networked Intelligence - Don Tapscott
Fuzzy Logic: The Revolutionary Computer Technology that Is Changing the World - Daniel McNeill & Paul Freiberger
Growing Up Digital - Don Tapscott
New Rules for the New Economy - Kevin Kelly
Out of Control - Kevin Kelly
Rethinking America - Heidrick Smith
The 500 Year Delta: What Happens After What Comes Next - Jim Taylor & Watts Wacker
The Future and Its Enemies - Virginia Postrel
The Hacker Crackdown - Bruce Sterling
The Last Best Thing - Pat Killon
The Secret of the Universe - Isaac Asimov
The Virtual Community - Howard Rheingold
Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution - K. Eric Drexler & Chris Peterson
Virtual Reality - Howard Rheingold

IFTF announces its 2009 Technology Horizons Research Agenda

2008-12-04T10:10:00.000-08:00

Fun agenda we have next year, huh?

2009 Technology Horizons Research Agenda

Creativity and control have always been necessary, if uneasy, partners in the advance of human ingenuity and technological and social development. At times we need the discipline and tools of control in order to enable creativity, at other times we must release control in order for creativity to blossom. This ageless cosmic dance is now entering new domains once unavailable to direct human intervention.

These include: more powerful and precise tools that unite computation and matter, bestowing upon us the ability to functionally re-design our minds, our senses, and our environments; the proliferation and ubiquity of visual media across our electronic communication networks, and the shift from text-based culture and cognition to a way of thinking and communicating that engages and rewards other sensibilities; and the power of ad hoc collectives of distributed agents, especially when combined with nimble prototyping technologies, to solve problems and transform traditional strategies for innovation.

As the stakes of human action increase, wielding the power of design requires both grace and humility, and the wisdom to know when to lead and when to let go.

In 2009, the Technology Horizons Program will explore these new ways we have begun to mediate, manipulate, and re-design our world, and what that means to the way we live our lives.

Our three core research themes are:

• When Everything is Programmable
• The Future of Video
• The Future of Lightweight Innovation

When Everything is Programmable

Trends we have been exploring in Technology Horizons in the past few years, such as the layering of digital information on the physical world, sensory rich data streaming 24/7, use of a host of technologies to extend people’s cognitive and physical abilities, blending of physical and digital realities, the emerging maker mindset-- when taken to their foreseeable culmination--are pointing to profound new powers to computationally design, i.e. program, our world. Imagine a world in which almost every material object (including our brains and bodies) is programmable, running code to achieve desired results, from particular moods to how the physical and social worlds around us function. Because once we have all the data and we can decode what the data means, the next logical step is to design to spec. What will these new powers mean for our individual and collective identities, as well as our fundamental relationships to our environment and to each other? In 2009, we extend the investigation of how layers of information and computation are embedded, ensconced, and entangled in the material world, into the examination of how we will use new technologies to intentionally and directly design and program our minds, our senses, and matter itself. We will take deep dives into three areas:

Programming the Mind
Powerful new scientific understandings and technologies are emerging that will significantly increase the level of precision and control we have over the manner in which our minds function. Already we have neuro and cogniceuticals that increase or modulate mental focus, attention, and memory. As our understanding of neurochemical processes increase, will are likely to acquire the ability to press chemical “buttons” to quickly and effectively change the way our minds work. Stimulation of certain regions of the brain, either by direct electronic current or by transcranial magnetic stimulation, has been correlated with particular outcomes—such as increased attention and recall. Already, we have seen crude brain-computer interfaces that allow directly channeled communication and interaction between mind and machine. As our precision of use with these devices grows, so will our ability to “dial” our minds to certain states. As our minds become further extended into the material world, and machines more fully integrated into our minds, what new affordances and blindspots will these relationships create? Who will control them and how will we use them? What will this mean for organizations? What types of practical and ethical dilemmas will our increased ability to program the mind create?

Programming the Senses
A large population of the “hearing impaired” (those with cochlear implants) have a level of control over their audible world that those with “normal” hearing can only imagine. Because sound is routed through an electronic receiver, and processed by complex computational algorithms before being transmitted to the cochlea and auditory nerve, a cochlear implant recipient can filter out certain sound frequencies (like high pitched noises), and tune into distant conversations using a directional microphone. As new sensory replacements and augmentations are developed, we will see more widespread use of technologies that allow us to modulate and partition the sensory world around us,
We are likely to add new senses to our repertoire of five, and create new kinds of sensory blends. Imagine a future in which we could sense danger in a way similar to many animals, or reprogram our senses so that we can hear the color blue. How will this impact how we experience the world and what is available to our perception and consciousness?

Programming Matter
Quantum dots, 3-D printing, claytronic atoms (catoms), dynamic physical rendering, rapid prototyping, flexible displays, and other forms of nanoscale assemblage are among the emerging technologies for programming (or hacking) matter. These, combined with mobile cloud computing, context-aware environments, and ubiquitous sensing, point to a world in which the objects, materials, and built environment are radically plastic, programmable, and responsive. We will investigate these converging technologies to uncover how these new levers and levels of control will alter the ecology of machine-to-machine, human-to-machine, and human-to-human relations.

The Future of Video

The ascent and currency of visual media signals a transformation on the order of the shift from manuscript to print. As the web continues its metamorphosis from a text vehicle to an image (moving image) vehicle, spurred on by the availability and adoption of such technologies as the phonecam, the webcam, voice (and video) over internet protocol, tiny handheld cameras like the Flip, and online video platforms like YouTube, it seems ever-more likely that video will overtake the written word as the predominant communication form for coming generations.

We are seeing the emergence of a new digitally-mediated oral society—one that will alter the way we shape our identities, communicate knowledge, create authority, and experience our sense world. A new public sphere, bringing together the semi-literate as well as the hyper-literate, will generate new channels for art, commerce, politics, and education.

Video comes with its own language, a language with a multitude of spontaneously generated and evolving vernaculars. We will examine trends in vernacular video, from lifecasting to collaborative content creation, with particular attention to the way technology, culture, and policy shape (and are shaped by) this massive participatory movement.

We will outline the new key players in the emerging realm of vernacular video: companies, organizations, campaigns and networks that are putting the power of video into the hands of individuals and channeling it to the world, and consider the implications for media, entertainment, political and social movements, indigenous and diasporic communities, marketing, and educational sectors.

Throughout antiquity and through the middle ages, even when reading alone, the written word was “read” aloud, audibly. Those who read silently were remarkable, viewed askance by their peers. We will be looking for the equivalent of ancient ‘silent readers’ in today’s media landscape, pointing to tomorrow’s “innate” habits and practices. We will seek out the ways (and the significance of) individuals and groups turning towards electronic recording and communication of sight and sound in search of something more personal, more meaningful, and more immediate.

The Future of Lightweight Innovation

As the global economy slows down, the pressure to innovate faster and cheaper will only increase. Over the next decade, we will see a rapid expansion of lightweight models for innovation, drawing on new ideas about organizing research and development, and new tools for collaboration. Just as web startups now move from idea to implementation without traditional incubation, more and more of new product and service development will happen outside of existing pipelines. As open innovation casts a wide net for ideas, it will merge with lightweight infrastructures that put the tools into everyday people's hands as well. In this research area we will define key features of the emerging lightweight innovation models and analyze strategies for employing such models in different kinds of organizations.

Please take five minutes to play a game by noon today!

2008-11-19T06:12:00.000-08:00

Reblogging a Jane email:

WHOAH it's a no-holds barred 19-hour FORECASTING race!! have 60 seconds? we need your brains! help a team WIN!

http://tinyurl.com/replynow

(We're competing to invent the future! PLEASE JOIN OUR GAME!

At 5 PM Pacific Time on Tuesday November 18, 2008, we unleashed onto the Internet five forecasting questions about the year 2019. Each question is posed by a different forecasting team at the 2008 Blended Reality conference at the Institute for the Future. Each team is competing to collect the most answers, and the most interesting examples, from the most diverse community possible.

PLEASE JOIN OUR GAME! Answer one, answer two, or more BEFORE 12 NOON PACIFIC TIME WED NOV 19, 2009

IFTF's After Shock: How to Play

2008-11-11T11:27:00.000-08:00

In addition to just jumping in and playing solo as an earthquake survivalist, here are some thoughts about how you might play IFTF's After Shock with others.

Beginning this Thursday, November 13, and continuing for 3 weeks, After Shock will simulate the landscape of Southern California after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake as if the disaster is happening in real time.

Through headlines, photographs, maps, and continual updates from After Shock’s grassroots reporters “on the scene” spread over Southern California, visitors to aftershock.net will experience the earthquake from the immediate aftermath of the initial 2 minutes of shaking, to the crucial 48-72 hours afterwards in which life-saving decisions still need to be made, to a massive aftershock that hits a now weakened region. Finally, the timeline of the After Shock simulation will accelerate to weeks and months after the earthquake, as Southern Californians shift from survival and recovery to rebuilding: lives, schools, businesses, networks.

How are you going to survive? Imagine your future now so you will be better prepared prepared for this inevitable future. How you are going to respond to a major earthquake in your city? Tell us your story by writing a scenario, uploading images, drawings or creating videos.

1. Join the After Shock Facebook group and the Twitter stream.
2.. Play as a Group: SURVIVAL to RECOVERY to REBUILDING
* Choose a group to play (2–10 people, or more) from your organization to play as a team project for the 3 weeks of game play
* Decide on a minimum amount of time to devote to playing, say an hour a week, to make it fun and realistic (create a competition in your group for best stories and solutions)
* Tell stories about what your organization is doing to address the disaster for individuals and for the company
* Start an After Shock discussion group focused specifically on your community or organization (for example, new ways your company/org can come together to assure that everyone has survived or has communication tools )
* Create a discussion to engage with new kinds of groups you don't ordinary work with to solve disaster-related issues
* Use your networks and preferred networking tools such as Twitter and Facebook to convene your peers in other groups/organizations in After Shock to start discussions on issues you all share
* Look for other institutional players you may not have worked with in the past to team up with

3. Play even though you are out of the CA region!

Imagine you have colleagues or loved ones in So. Cal:

How would you communicate with them?
How would you transfer support resources (money, water, health care)?
Tell you story about what is happening outside of the disaster region.

At it’s culmination, data will be collected and analyzed to help us understand how Southern California citizens might respond to this type of disaster and their degree of preparedness which IFTF will share in addition to key learnings form this project.

Be sure and watch the video at and game play starts Thursday!

IFTF releases the Future of Work research to the public domain

2008-10-20T15:34:00.000-07:00

The Future of Work:

The Technology Horizons Program’s research on the Future of Work comes at an exciting time for the intersection of work and technology. Technology has become integrated into virtually every aspect of work. And because we spend so much time working, work really is the place where we most directly feel the impact of developing technologies. From collaboration to productivity; from new ways of approaching workspace design to the increasing ability to work from virtually anywhere; and from hiring and recruitment to new skill sets—it is a time of experimentation for companies and organizations as trends in technology converge to change what it means to work.

Trip to Johannesburg

2008-10-19T19:20:00.001-07:00

In September, I took a trip to Johannesburg for work. I visited Pilanesburg Game Re serve and Soweto while there. My pics are here. A co-worker's are here. My pics are here.

Go visit!

The Sarah Palin Effect

2008-10-15T21:33:00.000-07:00

Here's a great video from my pal Tom. Funny!

Why Mad Men the best show on TV

2008-10-09T06:22:00.000-07:00

Last night, I finished watching the last episode of Mad Men (Season 1). The closing episode brought to light why it is the best show on TV.

This episode, which I was able to quickly find by using ffwd, took me back to 1976, to sit in my great grandmother's house and watch my grandmother's pictures of her trips around the country. At the time, it opened my eyes to the wonder of travel and was an initial connection to many of my distant cousins. I can still smell the popcorn and feel the hardwood floor underneath me.

You may not approve of the people in the show, but it is truly the best of TV. Watch it!

My longest international flights...part 2

2008-10-01T22:20:00.000-07:00

I made another long international trip a couple of weeks ago (South Africa!), so I thought I would update my list of my longest international flights. The best website I could find is Web|Flyer's MileMaker Mileage Calculator. (Please let me know if there is a better site.)

Here they are (apologies to those who prefer to use kilometers!):

8130 miles: Washington, DC - Johannesburg, South Africa <-- NEW!
5680 miles: San Francisco - Frankfurt, Germany
5620 miles: San Francisco - Seoul, Korea
5520 miles: Los Angeles - Nadi, Fiji
5110 miles: San Francisco - Tokyo, Japan
4760 miles: New York - Sao Paulo, Brazil
4170 miles: Johannesburg, South Africa - Dakar, Senegal <--NEW!
4080 miles: Miami - Sao Paulo, Brazil
3970 miles: Dakar, Senegal - Washington, DC <--NEW!
3210 miles: Miami - Santa Cruz, Bolivia

What is your longest flight?

How to play IFTF's Superstruct game

2008-09-22T11:25:00.000-07:00

From my colleagues...here are some thoughts about how you might play Superstruct:

• Play by yourself, or choose a team (or teams) of 3 to 10 people from your organization to play Superstruct as a team project for the six weeks the game will run. Players will probably need to devote a minimum of an hour a week to make it worthwhile, but if you can devote at least three hours a week, you'll get a lot more out of it. Give different members of the team different assignments, such as: 1) telling stories about what your organization is doing to address one or more of the superthreats; 2) starting Superstruct discussion groups focused specifically on your community (for example, new ways your community can come together to assure that everyone has safe Internet access in 2019); create a superstructure to engage with new kinds of groups you don't ordinary work with to solve the community dilemmas in 2019 and then personally invite people in those groups to join you--either people who are playing the game already or people you know in the community who might be willing to play.

• Use the superstructures as a way to engage the organizations that you currently support. Create a superstructure with a mission that you would like to see addressed, and invite your community/business groups or other participants to join the game and come up with new approaches to that mission, engaging the resources of other the SEHIs in Superstruct.

• Convene your peers in other organizations in Superstruct to start discussions on issues you all share. To get the most innovative thinking in your discussions, set them up the discussions in a way that invites input from the vast range of SEHIs who will play the game. If interesting ideas come up in the discussions, start a superstructure to test drive the ideas.

• Look for other institutional players you may not have worked with in the past. Many of IFTFs Ten-Year Forecast members are large corporations engaged in the food industry, the health industry, and the information industry. We also have a number of government and nonprofit members, like the CDC and United Cerebral Palsy, for example. Superstruct is a low-risk way to try out collaborations you might not have considered in the past.

• Use Superstruct as a "windtunnel" for testing your long-term strategies. Tell stories in Superstruct about how you've succeeded in your long-range goals in the challenging world of 2019. Then see how other players respond to the stories--how many "raves" you get for your stories or how they comment. The more compelling the stories are, with images or videos, the more likely you will be to get responses.

You can play the game with any name you choose, so you can be as public or anonymous as you want. And you can't really lose. Everything that happens in the game will almost certainly enrich your understanding of the dilemmas we face locally and globally--and of unique ways to collaborate to on a very large scale to address these complex problems.

Please feel free to contact me/IFTF if you have more questions or would like some hands-on help getting started in the game. We look forward to working together in the world of 2019!

Be sure and visit the video page now at http://superstructgame.org and game play starts on October 6.

5 minute Geography Test!

2008-09-10T09:08:00.001-07:00

Just wish they showed a map of the results when you were finished. Can you beat me?

81

Created by OnePlusYou - Online Dating

Headed to South Africa on Thursday

2008-09-07T09:28:00.000-07:00

I'll be there for a week for work. Headed to Johannesburg for the International of Science Parks conference. Traveling with a few co-workers...should be fun! Will visit a game park and Sun City while there.

IFTF is hiring: Community Leaders/Game Masters for Superstruct

2008-07-18T13:58:00.000-07:00

The Institute for the Future is hiring five community leaders/game masters for the upcoming future forecasting game Superstruct.

It’s an eight-week position beginning September 8, 2008. You can be a game master from anywhere in the world (outside of US is okay; we will have players from all over the world, although primarily playing in English), and it will require ~ 12 hours of online work per week. You’ll work very closely with Jane McGonigal (Avant Game) and Jamais Cascio (Open the Future). This is a non-profit game with no commercial sponsors; the position comes with a stipend of $2500.

Skills required: Great forum writing skills; online storytelling experience (blogs, videos, photos, Twitter, etc.); curiosity about the future; some expertise in issues related to sustainability, global health, environmental or climate issues, global business, social networks, or anything else you think might be useful to solving the problems of the future. We're open to considering anyone with great writing skills and a desire to investigate the future! No technical skills required, just great Internet skills.

Your job will be to lead a team of players (at minimum, hundreds of players; more likely, thousands of players) in creating a collaborative online forecast of the year 2019. The forecasting will take place through wikis, forums, videos, blogs, Twitter, online comics, photo sets, and whatever else our players use to depict and talk about the future. You'll be reading and watching lots of player-created content, in addition to making your own content. You'll give the players feedback, and you'll synthesize and summarize the most interesting things in a short weekly story. You'll be moderating forums and wikis dedicated to solving a particular future-problem. You'll have to help your community manage a careful balance between "wow, the future might be scary" storytelling to "you know what, we might actually be able to solve this problem before it kills us all" optimism. Because the game isn't just about imagining the future. It's about inventing the future. This game is a kind of working prototype for the year 2019!

Each game master will focus on one of five "superthreats", ranging from a devastating disruption of the food supply chain, to a pandemic, to "global weirding" weather patterns to create millions of climate refugees. (Depending on your interest and area of expertise, we'll make sure you get the right topic!) In the two weeks before the game launches, we'll give you a crash course in the IFTF research that is guiding this game, so you'll be an expert on your area when the game launches on September 22, 2008.

To apply: Send a letter to Jane at superstruct@iftf.org explaining why you want to join us on the Superstruct team. Mention any previous experience as a writer, or thinking about the future, playing or making games, running online communities, or being an interesting person online. Include a CV or resume if you think it will help explain who you are, but most importantly, in your letter, answer this question: It's the summer of 2019. You are yourself, but 10 years in the future. Describe where you are having for dinner, what you're eating, and what you're thinking or talking about. How did you wind up there, compared to where you had dinner most often in the summer of 2008?

Superstruct! Play the game, invent the future.

This fall, the Institute for the Future invites you to play Superstruct, the world’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game. It’s not just about envisioning the future—it’s about inventing the future. Everyone is welcome to join the game. Watch for the opening volley of threats and survival stories, September 2008.

This is a game of survival, and we need you to survive.

Super-threats are massively disrupting global society as we know it. There’s an entire generation of homeless people worldwide, as the number of climate refugees tops 250 million. Entrepreneurial chaos and “the axis of biofuel” wreak havoc in the alternative fuel industry. Carbon quotas plummet as food shortages mount. The existing structures of human civilization—from families and language to corporate society and technological infrastructures—just aren’t enough. We need a new set of superstructures to rise above, to take humans to the next stage.

You can help. Tell us your story. Strategize out loud. Superstruct now.

It's your legacy to the human race.

Want to learn more about the game? Read the Superstruct FAQ.

Not the best email to receive from your phone company

2008-07-15T08:24:00.000-07:00

From: Xiptel Support Services
Date: July 15, 2008 2:18:07 AM PDT
To: support@xiptel.com
Subject: ***XIPTEL SERVICE OUTAGE***

Monday evening XIPTEL's services were interrupted at approximately 6:40 PM due to a power outage at the Fremont, CA data center. When power was in the process of being restored, a power surge destroyed the primary and secondary firewall systems, which has continued the outage. Technicians and resources have been working through the night in an effort fix the problem. It is anticipated that service will be out completely for 24 to 36 hours, although we hope and are working to have it back sooner. As soon as we have further information we will communicate that to you. We apologize for the disruption and we are working to restore service as quickly as possible.
--
XIPTEL

Superstruct! Play the game, invent the future.

2008-07-10T16:33:00.000-07:00

[This post was copied from IFTF's Future Now blog]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

SEPTEMBER 22, 2019

Humans have 23 years to go

Global Extinction Awareness System starts the countdown for Homo sapiens.

PALO ALTO, CA — Based on the results of a year-long supercomputer simulation, the Global Extinction Awareness System (GEAS) has reset the "survival horizon" for Homo sapiens - the human race - from "indefinite" to 23 years.

“The survival horizon identifies the point in time after which a threatened population is expected to experience a catastrophic collapse,” GEAS president Audrey Chen said. “It is the point from which it a species is unlikely to recover. By identifying a survival horizon of 2042, GEAS has given human civilization a definite deadline for making substantive changes to planet and practices.”

According to Chen, the latest GEAS simulation harnessed over 70 petabytes of environmental, economic, and demographic data, and was cross-validated by ten different probabilistic models. The GEAS models revealed a potentially terminal combination of five so-called “super-threats”, which represent a collision of environmental, economic, and social risks. “Each super-threat on its own poses a serious challenge to the world's adaptive capacity,” said GEAS research director Hernandez Garcia. “Acting together, the five super-threats may irreversibly overwhelm our species’ ability to survive.”Garcia said, “Previous GEAS simulations with significantly less data and cross-validation correctly forecasted the most surprising species collapses of the past decade: Sciurus carolinenis and Sciurus vulgaris, for example, and the Anatidae chen. So we have very good reason to believe that these simulation results, while shocking, do accurately represent the rapidly growing threats to the viability of the human species.”

GEAS notified the United Nations prior to making a public announcement. The spokesperson for United Nations Secretary General Vaira Vike-Freiberga released the following statement: "We are grateful for GEAS' work, and we treat their latest forecast with seriousness and profound gravity."

GEAS urges concerned citizens, families, corporations, institutions, and governments to talk to each other and begin making plans to deal with the super-threats.

###

This is a game of survival, and we need you to survive.

You can help. Tell us your story. Strategize out loud. Superstruct now.

It's your legacy to the human race.

Want to learn more about the game? Read the Superstruct FAQ.

Superstruct Now

Get a head start on the game. It’s the summer of 2019. Imagine you’re already there, and tell us a little bit about your future self. Where are you having dinner tonight?

Post your comments and/or read others on the original post.

IFTF is hiring 2 PHP gaming programmers...help us make a game!

2008-07-10T12:41:00.000-07:00

The Institute for the Future is looking for two PHP programmers to help build our first ever MASSIVELY MULTIPLAYER FORECASTING GAME. Players will work together to forecast the year 2019, and the game focuses on real-world threats to the survival of the human species.

Basically, it's an exciting and save-the-world kind of project. Join us!

Here's what we need:

FRONT-END: A WEB INTERFACE PROGRAMMER who can build highly interactive web pages in PHP and work with the game design team to spec the design and with the graphic design team to implement the design. UI Flash skills are a plus.

BACK-END: A DATABASE PROGRAMMER who can work in PHP. Tasks will include integrating web forms for capturing blog posts, setting up forums, doing simple surveys, computing survey results, and feeding results to graphic displays. Drupal knowledge is a plus.

Both positions are short-term positions that start immediately and are expected to last through September. San Francisco/Bay Area individuals are preferred, but remote work is possible. Salaries commensurate with experience.

This is an opportunity to work with a game pioneer and a world-renown non-profit research institute to help address the problems we face as a global society over the coming decade. We expect this game to be groundbreaking and receive a lot of attention, not to mention extremely fun to work on.

Interested? Send Jane an email and tell her about yourself and your experience - write to jane @ avantgame dot com!

Facebook...you make no sense

2008-07-09T17:15:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, I received an email from Facebook indicating that IFTF had been granted Network-status. It took a while for IFTF to be listed in the network directory and after finding it, sharing my work email, and confirming my email, I was presented with the following information:

My question...why send the email to me/create a network for my employer in the first place?

2008 Taste of Howell Mountain

2008-06-21T08:41:00.000-07:00

I am headed to the Charles Krug Winery in St. Helena this afternoon a wine and food tasting and a silent/live auction: 2008 Taste of Howell Mountain. Pics and an update later!

[Update: won two silent auctions! Not even close on the live auctions, though. Are top bids (what we would pay ) were often at or below the starting bid. Pics will have to wait as I dropped my camera into some water.]

[Update 2: camera was saved after weeks of desiccating in the refrigerator. Here they are!]

My longest international flights

2008-06-19T16:53:00.000-07:00

I made a long international trip a couple of weeks ago (Italy!), so thought I would list my longest international flights. The best website I could find is Web|Flyer's MileMaker Mileage Calculator. (Please let me know if there is a better site.)

Here they are (apologies to those who prefer to use kilometers!):

5680 miles: San Francisco - Frankfurt, Germany
5620 miles: San Francisco - Seoul, Korea
5520 miles: Los Angeles - Nadi, Fiji
5110 miles: San Francisco - Tokyo, Japan
4760 miles: New York - Sao Paulo, Brazil
4080 miles: Miami - Sao Paulo, Brazil
3210 miles: Miami - Santa Cruz, Bolivia

In September, I will likely be going to South Africa...and if I get the DC to Cape Town leg...that will be 7930 miles! The big daddy of them all is Newark to Singapore: 9520 miles!

What is your longest flight?

New IFTF report: Smart Infrastructures: Computational Resources to Burn

2008-04-30T12:24:00.000-07:00

There is a new addition to IFTF's public library. From the Technology Horizons Program is the report, "Smart Infrastructures: Computational Resources to Burn"

Over the next 15–20 years we will overcome limits in availability of our computational resources. While today, high-performance computing applications are mostly limited to capital-intensive industries like petroleum exploration, aircraft and automotive design, and pharmaceuticals, over time these capabilities will migrate to mass markets and eventually into the hands of consumers. In this world of abundant computing, our interactions with computers will no longer be constrained to laptops, desktops, and handhelds. High-powered computing capability will be embedded in our physical environment, in living things, medicine, walls, furniture, garments, tools, utensils, and toys. We'll be able to interact with information in place as naturally as we interact now with physical things, which will become increasingly less passive, and more active. In short, the computation revolution will have huge impacts on daily life, workplaces, and in many industries. In this memo we review the fundamental technologies driving exponential growth in computing resources and some of the likely applications in areas such as entertainment, gaming, health, and communications.

New IFTF report: Sensory Transformation: New Tools & Practices for Overcoming Cognitive Overload

2008-04-30T12:18:00.000-07:00

There is a new addition to IFTF's public library. From the Technology Horizons Program is the report, "Sensory Transformation: New Tools & Practices for Overcoming Cognitive Overload"

Information overload has become a cliche. We use the phrase half-jokingly to describe the stress associated with the onslaught of media that digital technology has unleashed on us. The sobering reality is that we ain't seen nothin' yet. The vast majority of new information technologies are either built for data acquisition (e.g., sensor networks and camera phones) or information dissemination (e.g., blogs, RSS, location-enhanced media, and aware environments). The suffocation of endless incoming e-mail demanding immediate response, the twinge of guilt from falling behind on your RSS feeds, dread about a TiVo hard drive full of unwatched shows these are all just a teaser for what to come. No matter how many computers surround us, collecting, aggregating, and delivering information, we each only have one pair of eyes and ears, and more importantly, one mind, to deal with the data.

STIRR Deal Hacks (and STIRR Birthday!)

2008-04-25T13:45:00.000-07:00

STIRR Deal Hacks (and STIRR Birthday!)

Wednesday, May 14...6-9pm
Bistro 412
412 Emerson Street
Palo Alto CA

Join other founding teams and investors for STIRR's first Deal Hacks.

STIRR Celebrates It's 3rd year with a twist. This time we bring you two of the best early stage investors in the spotlight for Deal Hacks. Each VC will be sharing personal stories from the the investment side of the fence. They'll be available afterward for group Q&A.

Year 3!

This event kicks off STIRR's 3rd year. We'll be clebrating by returning to the site that started it all back in April 2006: Bistro 412 (formerly F&A's). The venue has a beautiful back patio and we've reserved the whole space just for STIRR.

Tickets: http://dealhacks.eventbrite.com

Who should attend?

Founding Teams of launched Internet, Mobile, Enterprise, Software related BioTech and Cleantech
VCs
Qualified Angels
Top level engineering talent
Press (must qualify for pass: press@stirr.net)

Who shouldn't attend (these folks bring us down):

No deal finders/middlemen
Non-investing advisors (aka 'Advisory Capital')
Unrelated consultants, service providers, tourists

STIRR's mixer events are designed to bring together the founding teams of early stage startups and later stage entrepreneurs. The events are created and hosted by entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs. STIRR events are never PR stunts or sales pitches and we never sell/rent our email lists.

Some of the venue and food cost have been graciously sponsored by:

Sun Microsystems - http://www.sun.com/startup

Why I won't upgrade my SUV's Navigation System

2008-04-23T11:29:00.001-07:00

Last year, I bought an SUV (2007 Honda Pilot) and choose the Navigation System as an add-on. This added ~$2,000 to the cost of my vehicle. Even knowing that they made a huge margin on the nav system, I am quite happy with it. What I didn't ask about at the time, was upgrades to the system (new points of interest, new roads, upgraded features, etc.). A mistake.

The vehicle had been making a funny sound when I gently accelerated, and as the 10,000 mile mark had passed, I thought that a check-up was in order: oil change, rotate the tires, top off the car juices, etc. & also have the sound looked at/fixed. When I dropped off the vehicle, I also inquired if a Nav Update was available. A hesitant look and a quick response was given, "you'll have to speak to parts, they can tell you." It didn't seem to important to me at the time to do this, so I didn't. I went to work and returned around 5pm and all was in order (the sound was fixed, too!).

Today, while speaking to a colleague about nav systems (he just got a Dash Express), I queried him about updates. We googled and quickly found this site that show you if an update is available. One is...but only to dealers...and at a cost of, get this, $191 + tax. I called them for clarification. It will be available to consumers in July at the same price. Now...what do I get for this upgrade? Here's the list. Coverage was expanded (in places that I probably won't be driving to)...and here are the full list of new "features":

One way streets (indicated with arrows on the 1/20 mile scale - turn on in Icon Options - "Other icons")
Loss of male voice prompts (voice prompts revert to female - regardless of previous setup setting)
Additional brand icons for restaurants, motels and other POIs
Updated maps and POIs

I don't know about any of you...but how is this upgrade worth $191 + tax?

Tele Atlas...do you have an answer? (For those that don't know...Tele-Atlas is the supplier of this data to Alpine USA, the maker of my nav system.)

IFTF's next conference: The Future of Making: Making the Future

2008-04-23T11:21:00.000-07:00

Here is what IFTF is up to next! Should be a fun conference!

The Future of Making: Making the Future

2008 Technology Horizons Spring Exchange, May 4-5, 2008

We are on the verge of a transformation in how products are designed, manufactured, and distributed. The entire supply chain is undergoing reinvention and the impact will be felt not only by manufacturers but by individuals, households, communities, even entire regions. Driven by the need to innovate faster than ever before, green aspirations, and a quest for authenticity, new paradigms for "making things" are emerging. The introduction of cheap 3D printers, the growth of the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) culture, the rise of ad hoc manufacturing, and the popularity of collaborative communities around ideas, designs, and R&D all point to how the future of making may play out. What will these new models for making look like? Who will be the new makers? What role will your organization play in the new production chain and what will it mean for how you relate to your customers?

We will begin the exploration by immersing ourselves in the at the third annual Bay Area Maker Faire, a massive celebration of DIY culture taking place at the San Mateo Expo Center on May 3 and 4. Sponsored by MAKE:, the DIY technology projects magazine, the Maker Faire is packed with "weak signals"—projects, methods, and people that can give us glimpses of the future of making. After our Sunday at the Maker Faire, we will gather the next day at a nearby hotel to make sense of what we've learned. IFTF's Technology Horizons team will present the new Future of Making Map, a framework for thinking about this transformation. Joining us will be a handful of future-thinking, passionate experts who will help us understand how to navigate a future where making itself is being remade.

Gmail being attacked?

2008-03-10T07:09:00.000-07:00

I usually wake up to about 10 new emails and 30 Spams (in my Gmail account) when I wake up. This morning , it was 52 and 1585. My work email was unaffected. Since you can only delete 50 emails at a time from Gmail's Spam folder, it took me a few minutes to be back to normal. Did anyone else notice an attack?

Hillary is Moms Jeans

2008-02-21T16:30:00.001-08:00

Such a funny site! Keep refreshing and enjoy. Not sure what are done with suggestions...but there are some good ones!

Just read: Wine and War

2008-02-19T19:05:00.000-08:00

Last week, I watched Downfall and was intrigued to read a book that I picked up a couple of months ago: Wine and War : The French, the Nazis, and the Battle for France's Greatest Treasure. I studied French in high school and have begun buying some nice CdP wine so thought it was time to learn some history and mix it up with my new passion. For those that don't know much about the wine country of France, this is a great historical guide to learn about the various regions and some of the "big" houses of Bordeaux, Burgundy and Champagne. If you like wine, history, or both...you'll be happy to read this. I have a copy if interested!

Next up: Bobos in Paradise (well...I have about 30 pages left...so not really next up). Thanks for the loaner copy, Michael!

Lawrence Lessig for California's 12th District!

2008-02-19T18:53:00.000-08:00

Even though he doesn't represent me (Pete Stark does), I am all in favor of Lawrence Lessig taking over the vacant 12th District. See if this video moves you to do something (contribute or voluteer). He'll make his decision the first week of March.

Sad news from Korea

2008-02-12T09:40:00.000-08:00

During my trip to Seoul last year, I was lucky enough to visit the Namdaemun Gate (one of Korea's National Treasures) the morning of my departure. Sadly, and arsonist burned it down on Monday. I snapped a few pictures of it before we left. My colleague Anthony has some footage of it while there in 2004.

Now Reading: Cormac McCarthy's The Road

2008-02-04T23:11:00.000-08:00

Cormac McCarthy won the Pulitzer Prize for The Road. You may recognize his name from the recent movie No Country for Old Men. The Road is a postapocalyptic tale of a father and his son who walk alone through a burned America. Having just finished The World Without Us, I thought it would be a good follow-up.

After this, I will drift to 1940s France...war and wine!

My new camping toy: a Zero degree bag from North Face

2008-01-13T12:14:00.000-08:00

From time to time I'll go snowshoeing with my buddy Michael in the Sierras. Some trips will be windy, others will be quite cold. Based on my experience on that last one...I decided to get a new bag. A trip yesterday to REI (weekend clearance sale) led me to this Zero degree synthetic from North Face, aptly named Snowshoe. Thanks to all those REI gift cards that I received for Xmas, it was almost free. Thanks everyone!

I'm like a kid with a new toy with purchases like this, so after bringing it home, I immediately tried it out. It worked well...too well...I was sweating in about 5 minutes. PERFECT!

This is my new snowshoeing/camping in cold weather bag. I'll keep the 20 degree bags for regular camping trips.

IFTF is hiring: Research Manager—Health/Health Care Emphasis

2008-01-11T14:24:00.000-08:00

Let me know if you are interested!

--Sean

------------------

Research Manager—Health/Health Care Emphasis

Position Title and reporting relationship

The Research Manager reports to the Director of the IFTF Health Horizons Program. No subordinate staff report to this position.

position summary

This is a high-level position charged with doing qualitative and quantitative research across a range of topics, but with special emphasis on issues pertaining to health and health care—the health care delivery system, health technologies, pharmaceuticals and genomics, public policy, health care consumers, and health behaviors. The focus is on discontinuities, intersections, drivers, and barriers shaping the future of health and health care in a global context. (See www.iftf.org for the Institute for the Future and the Health Horizons Program descriptions.)

the ideal candidate

The ideal candidate will have undergraduate and graduate degrees in a combination of life science and social science and possibly a Master’s or PhD in a related field. He/she will have worked in the health care field with research or public policy experience. This person will be able to understand technology, its applications in health and health care and resulting societal and business implications.

responsibilities

Working within a team environment the primary responsibilities of the Research Manager are as follows:

He/she makes suggestions for Program direction and marketable deliverables that are consistent with the Program’s goals and objectives.

He/she understands research methodology well enough to structure and lead and carry out primary and secondary research tasks with high quality, on schedule, and within budget.

Based on the research results and with input from others, he/she develops foresights about the business consequences of plausible alternative futures as well as insights for decision makers about links to their strategic choices and action plans.

He/she then communicates these finding both in writing and in person. Writing includes succinct executive summaries (1–5 pages), provocative articles (6–15 pages), and research monographs (16–100 pages). Writing must be accurate and effective, clear and compelling. The Research Manager will present these results in a wide variety of face-to-face forums, from small-group workshops to large-group conferences.

He/she will design and organize conferences, workshops, seminars, teleconferences, and other events. He/she will facilitate discussions at these events to ensure clarity and understanding. Some of these group sessions may involve working directly with clients.

He/she represents the Institute and effectively communicates the scope and value of the Institute’s Programs to such a degree that he/she can bring new clients to the Institute.

knowledge/skill requirements

Candidates for this position must have 2–5 years’ experience in health or health care research, project management, or operations combined with time spent in strategic planning. Some background in public policy issues is highly desirable.

He/she must demonstrate strong qualitative analytical skills, such as gathering information and data from multiple sources, conducting interviews, designing surveys, and analyzing and drawing insights from data.

He/she must also show strong quantitative analytical skills, such as probabilistic analysis and other advanced tools or analysis techniques.

This position requires a proven ability to structure, lead, and manage research projects.

The candidate must also possess excellent communication and interpersonal skills, organizational and multi-tasking capabilities, and group meeting facilitation talents. In addition to working efficiently alone, he/she must collaborate well with other researchers, team members, staff, and outside experts. Our fast-paced, small-business environment requires that He/she is flexible, works at an above-average pace, and performs with minimal supervision.

This position requires strong computer skills and experience conducting research via the Internet. A working knowledge of Word, Excel, PowerPoint, group calendaring, and database programs is required.

educational requirements

Candidates for this position must have at least a Master’s Degree. Our ideal candidate will have a multi-disciplinary background, business degree, or an education in a life science discipline and the ability to broadly apply it.

location and hours

This full-time position is located at the Institute for the Future’s Palo Alto offices. Working hours are flexible, but should overlap most of the normal business day.

IFTF's X2 Project: seeking Stanford and Berkeley grad students

2008-01-11T10:55:00.001-08:00

Full details on IFTF's X2 Project can be found here.

We’ll need resumes from those that are interested to see if they are a fit. Contact me (Sean) if this interests you!

--Sean

----------------------------------------------

Hi All:

We are planning to have an informal, one-day X2 signals workshop for local graduate students around the end of January. We're looking for nearby graduate students, particularly at Stanford and Berkeley, who are working/studying in core science and technology disciplines.

Including, but definitely not limited to...

*Life sciences (especially neurobiology & behavior, genetics, biochemistry & molecular biology, microbiology)

*Engineering (especially electrical & computer, biomedical, chemical & bio-molecular, materials science, information technology, nanotechnology)

*Computer science (no preference)

*Physics (especially solid-state, biophysics, optics, high energy, quantum mechanics, astronomy/cosmology)

*Chemistry

*Medicine

While currently enrolled in graduate school is good, we'll also consider recent graduates if they're interested -- undergrad/M.S./M.Eng./Ph.D. We're also particularly looking for international students.

We'll be offering a stipend of approx $250, permanent access to the X2 platform, and of course free food and Wii breaks. The 'workshop' will last one day, probably Friday, January 25.

My next book: The World Without Us

2008-01-04T09:56:00.000-08:00

New Reading: The World Without Us - How earth evolves if humans suddenly disappear.

Just Finished: The Last Town on Earth - Having read The Great Influenza (read it!) earlier in the year, the logical next step was to read some historical fiction about the 1919 Pandemic. Read it!

New Year's Eve blind wine tasting

2008-01-01T11:52:00.000-08:00

We had some friends over for dinner/NYE celebration yesterday and enjoyed some great wine! Here is what we had...

To whet our appetite with cheese and other morsels, we started with:

2001 Freemark Abbey Cabernet Sauvignon Bosche Vineyard

The suggested wine varietal for the tasting was Chateauneuf-du-Pape. As a group, we haven't had much French wine experience (Napa and Sonoma are too close to ignore!), so we decided to expand our horizons. I planted a decoy in the mix just for fun. After the tasting, we tallied up the scores and came up with this ordering:

5. 2005 Gilles Barge Cote-Rotie Cuvee du Plessy - this one seemed to be tainted
4. 2000 Chateau Laroque - my favorite!
3. 2005 Orin Swift The Prisoner - the decoy
2. 2004 Patrick Lesec Chateauneuf-du-Pape Chasse Temps - #1 for 3 tasters
1. 2003 Chateau La Nerthe Chateauneuf-du-Pape - #1 for 5 tasters

(Note that CdP was hard to fine on short notice...so other French wines were substituted.)

We enjoyed the rest of the wine with dinner (chicken, pasta, seafood gumbo) and also opened up four more bottles:

2002 Sterling Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve
2000 Pierre Gaillard Cote Rotie Cote Rozier
2005 Simi Dry Creek Valley Late Harvest Zinfandel
2005 Mount Palomar Chardonnay Solanus Late Harvest

And for the New Year's toast, we opened up some champagne:

N.V. Marcel Hemard Champagne ORIGINE
N.V. Charles Heidsieck Champagne Brut Reserve
N.V. Jeanmarie Champagne Cuvee Brut

Happy New Year to all!!!

An ABC promotional site for LOST fans (www.apollocandy.com) has been hacked

2007-12-31T10:43:00.000-08:00

I am a fan of the ABC show LOST and from time to time, visit Lostpedia to get updates on the show and also to see all the details that fans have uncovered.

Today, I had some free time (many of us do!) and visited the site. I stumbled upon an article on the Apollo Bar (a candy bar that has made several appearances over the last three years) and started to read. Envious of the fans that had a chance to eat one of the bars, I watched a commercial for the candybar (see below)...

...and then preceded to visit the Apollo Candy website (dub dub dub apollocandy dot com). Whoopsy...it appears that ABC has been a bit careless and allowed the site to be taken over by some pornies. There is no reference to the hack on Lostpedia (so I added it) or by searching Google...looks like I found something! Running a whois search, I see that the site registrant doesn't appear to be associated with ABC/Disney. I gave an ABC contact the details of this...let's see how long it takes to clean it up.

As Seth Godin mentions...a website is forever, you need to keep/maintain it (or at least not let the pornies take it from you!)

Glow in the dark cats from South Korea

2007-12-12T14:34:00.000-08:00

My first thoughts after reading this story about glowing cats...

Pros for doing this to ~~humans~~ glomans:

Easier to pick things up in the dark
Raves would be much cooler
Halloween is year round!

Cons:

Glomans will never win at hide and seek
A gloacist society will most likely emerge…pitting greens against pinks against the oranges

How do you feel about this research and where it could lead?

IFTF's latest report: A Model World: Simulation Literacy and the Future of Virtuality

2007-12-12T11:08:00.000-08:00

IFTF's Technology Horizons members will get to read this report in its entirety. Non-members will be able to read it in December of 2008. Congratulations to the authors, David Pescovitz and Alex Pang.

From the Introduction:
A new language is emerging that will transform how we conduct business, make life decisions, and interact with our world over the next decade: it is the language of simulation. At the most basic level, a simulation is an imitation of a real thing, experience, or process. But in recent years, it’s become possible to create computer simulations that are much higher fidelity and more accurate than ever before. In the next decade, the best simulations won't be judged by how realistic they are but how real they are. They will become real in the way that the Internet has become real over the last decade—not only as a platform for learning or academic science, but also as a platform for providing human social interaction and commerce; as a platform for designing the world in real time; and as a platform for inventing and reinventing our individual lives. With some simulations, we will twist the knobs, press "go," and see what happens. In others, we will be key players, interacting in digital space with virtual artifacts, phenomena, and each other. Some simulations will even play out at the intersection of the virtual and real worlds, enabling us to bring a sense of physicality to our digital data.

STIRR's 2nd Annual Statup Holiday Soiree (Dec 19) is almost sold out!

2007-12-12T10:04:00.000-08:00

Announcing the STIRR Holiday Soiree: An upscale holiday gathering for entrepreneurs, their teams, loved ones, investors, social media moguls and more. We've secured one of the most beautiful venues in SF (the Julia Morgan Ballroom at the Merchants Exchange Building) and will fill it with free flowing wine, a Champagne Welcome, the culinary delights of Chef Paul, Live music + DJ + dance floor, and a great crowd of entrepreneurs and those that support them. If your startup hasn't had a holiday party yet (or wants a second), feel free to bring the team. We're partnering with our friends at Women2.0 and Girls in Tech to make this a night to remember. Ticket prices will start ratcheting up as we get closer to the date so please purchase before
the prices go up!

Wikipedia "occasional" word of the day: Retrodiction

2007-12-10T14:43:00.001-08:00

I received an email today from someone who mentioned the ability to predict the past and called it retrodiction. I laughed...shared it with others, then was dumbfounded when I found out that it is a real word...well...at least according to Wikipedia.

So...who would like to leave a comment with some retrodictions?

Blind tasting night with friends

2007-12-09T12:19:00.000-08:00

We spent Saturday evening hosting a blind wine tasting with some friends. The rules were simple...bring a somewhat pricey wine (>$75). My thinking is that a Napa cab would be the default selection brought by guest (my personal bias running rampant?). I was surprised that only two were Napa cabs. Here is how they rated, along with a link to CellarTracker (the best wine site for tracking your personal collection):

In the end, we were all winners as each of us had the opportunity to enjoy great wine with great food (lamb, ribs, salad, rosemary potatoes, sausage fried rice, several cheeses and a variety of desserts) with great friends. We decided to have a blind tasting every three months and to select themes around a specific varietal. We also realized mid-tasting that we should have planted a wine in the mix for fun...either something more reasonably priced or just all together different. Next time!

A thank you card from my nephew

2007-11-19T09:32:00.000-08:00

Dear Uncle Sean,

thanks for the $100 dollars
my parents were mean
and told me to save $50
for college.
From,
David

Tasting along the Wine Road in Sonoma

2007-11-05T16:58:00.000-08:00

We spent the weekend up in Sonoma and participated in the 9th Annual Wine and Food Affair. Of all the visits that we have made so far this year, this one had to be the most scenic. Sonoma offers many different varietals and the land is very hilly, so the contrasts and colors and forms (combined with the beautiful weather) was something to be experienced. Glad we were able to go! On Saturday, we visited:

Arista - The most beautiful place we visited
Hanna
Alexander Valley Vineyards - Bought a 2004 Syrah
White Oak - Picked up two of their 2004 Napa Valley cabs
Simi - Bought a 2003 Landslide Cab, a 2006 Late Harvest Chardonnay and a 2005 Late Harvest Zinfandel
Bella
Zichichi
Gopfrich - Picked up a 2005 Estate Cuvee

STIRR Founder Hacks III -Tuesday, November 13 (San Francisco)

2007-11-05T15:40:00.000-08:00

Mighty

119 Utah Street
San Francisco, California 94103

Tuesday, November 13, 2007
6:00 PM - 9:00 PM

There's no single playbook for how to grow a startup. Come hear some of the current tricks of the startup trade from financing to hiring to managing the board to scaling up and more. Each of our presenters are bringing one of their favorite hacks to share in STIRR's short-form format.

The Presenting Founders will kick things off around 7:20pm:

Ev Williams, Founder - Twitter / Obvious Corp
Michael Cerda, Founder - Jangl
Jonathan Abrams, Founder - Friendster / Socializr

Both Ev and Michael will be available to speak with the attendees after the talk. We'll also have a short Q&A this month.

Previous talks:

Purchase tickets here.

More details on the Facebook event page.

IFTF's 2008 Technology Research theme and agenda has been set

2007-10-14T22:42:00.000-07:00

BLENDED REALITIES, BLENDED LIVES

Reality is up for grabs. Emerging technologies are transforming everything that constitutes our notion of “reality”—our ability to sense our surroundings, our capacity to reason, our perception of the world. Twenty years after William Gibson coined the term cyberspace as a metaphor for a place we “visit” to interact with information, the term is not only played out but on the verge of irrelevance. The wireless Web, virtual worlds, augmented realities overlaid on top of physical ones, advanced simulations, and networked knowledge promise to transform our everyday experiences into a symbiotic blend of analog and digital experiences of human, and machine. Digital information won’t feel like it exists in an alternate place that we go to but rather as a layer atop everyday life. “The Network” will finally become intertwined with the fabric of our lives. Even our minds will be augmented with the wisdom of the global brain.

In 2008, the Technology Horizons Program will examine this future of blended realities and blended lives. Our key research questions will be:

What does it feel like to live in a blended reality?
How do people integrate or navigate multiple realities?
What new skills may be acquired?
What are the challenges, pains, needs, and fears?
What new desires are emerging?

As part of our continued research on human-futures interaction, we will take a people-centric approach. We will start with the human experience and ask questions about how we’ll navigate a future where we have multiple personas, play games to solve serious problems, and how the interaction between individuals, groups, and machines is creating new kind of knowledge.

Our research will be broken down into the hotspots and deliverables below. We’ll also conduct a separate research project on the future of manufacturing.

2008 RESEARCH TOPICS

1. Realities Are What You Make Of Them
Our personalities are becoming multiple and portable. We’ll soon be able to carry our avatars from one context to another, from conventional games to user-created worlds like Second Life and even into reality-based environments like Google Earth. We’ll be able to create imaginative 3D environments and overlay them on the real world, creating a new kind of blended reality. What will the user experience be like? How will this future of blended realities affect our psychology and sense of self?

2. The Future of "Serious" Play
The next generation of digital games wants to do more than just entertain—they are designed to investigate real-world issues, to solve real-life problems, and to inform long-term planning. Serious games over the next decade will take many forms, from personal life-management games to massively multiplayer global development games; from virtual worlds developed as collaborative scientific research platforms to immersive corporate learning environments that cultivate innovation through play. What new opportunities and dilemmas emerge as we cross the old divides between serious work and play, between reality and virtuality, and between tools for work and tools for play? We’ll examine the viability of virtual economies; the unique persuasive power of games; the challenges of representing the complexities of reality in serious game design; and the implications and stakes of new mobile and augmented reality platforms for play.

3. Emerging Markets: Stories of Lead Mobile Users
Over the next ten years, the proliferation of mobile phones in developing regions will reveal innovative usage practices that will shape future mobile experiences and industries in the rest of the world. In contexts where resources and infrastructure are limited, new kinds of lead users are the drivers of innovation. They are often rich but poorly educated farmers or impoverished migrant workers whose only connection to various resources, from family to jobs, is the mobile phone. Based on firsthand ethnographic work in India, China, Russia, and Latin America, this research endeavor will examine key drivers shaping innovation in mobile space in these regions, and forecast what innovations might diffuse globally and why.

4. Mapping Knowledge in a Networked World
Computing pioneer Douglas Engelbart forecasted in 1962 that “network augmented intelligence” will emerge at the intersection of the mind and the machine—the individual, the group, and the Web. What matters is what technology and people do together; how we use new information technologies to interact with the world’s wisdom; how faster computers allow us to identify valuable patterns in raw data; and how knowledge about our brain can enable us to better organize our thoughts and communicate ideas. In today’s augmented world, the Dewey Decimal System is making way for folksonomies and the wisdom of crowds is often more trusted than the opinion of credentialed experts. The Semantic Web, recommendation engines, the scanning of entire libraries, and natural language processing may lead to a redefinition of knowledge, a democratization of wisdom, and a reevaluation of what it means to be an expert. The Future of Knowledge Map will present a roadmap for the evolution of individual-collective-machine intelligence.

5. Manufacturing: From Massive to Lightweight
Globally, manufacturing is the engine driving an historic expansion of economic growth and innovation. But nostalgic visions of the industrial factory humming along, producing widgets describe only a tiny portion of the reality of manufacturing around the world today. On the one hand, in advanced economies, manufacturing is becoming more lightweight, more automated, more decentralized, more mobile, and more efficient. Yet in places like China and India, the world’s workshops, manufacturing is dirtier and more dangerous than ever, taking an enormous toll on human and environmental resources. We’ll take stock in these contrasting trends and develop plausible visions of how manufacturing may be remade over the next decade.

It is Giant Ass time!

2007-10-12T09:46:00.001-07:00

One of the more humorous things about watching a Red Sox game is when a left-handed batter comes up when the Giant Glass sign is displayed. If the batter (in this case Mr. Big Papi!) is in the proper position, one can view "GIANT ASS" in the background.

When I was with my buddies at a bar back in Boston or Portsmouth, this always made us clink our bottles together and bring about laughter.

The Red Sox are again back in the American League Championship Series and on a National Stage. My question is whether or not Fox will take over that ad space and put their own up or leave the local ads there for the fans to enjoy. I hope it is the latter.

Gurgle...a site for new/expecting parents

2007-10-02T10:25:00.001-07:00

A UK friend just announced the beta release of Gurgle. I am not in their demographic (yet), but some of you may get some goodness from this or know of people who would. I have never changed a diaper in my life and have had minimal contact with little ones (outside of short visits with my niece/nephew with friends who are parents), so having a resource like this in the future will be very helpful!

Gurgle is an online destination for expecting and new parents that combines a smart social networking engine with rich editorial material. Gurgle provides comprehensive advice and tips, and connects users with other community members at exactly the same stage as them.

Waiter, I have a Karl Marx in my soup...

2007-09-27T23:27:00.000-07:00

While eating my soup last week, I did a doubletake. Whatcha think? Do you see Karl Marx? Here's the flickr image of it.

Pesco put this on BoingBoing, so I should explain some more...

I was out to dinner with a client in Seoul enjoying some water kimchi, when I noticed this slice of radish floating on top. I feel bad that I didn't take multiple (and close-up) pics...sorry! I ended up eating it, but in retrospect, should have pocketed it and returned to the US with it and put it up for auction. Perhaps a worthy gambling website would have bid on it...

I was in Korea last week

2007-09-27T23:21:00.001-07:00

What a wondrous trip. Here are the pics.

Things I observed:
* Women do not smoke
* Big buildings always have a statue out front (it is the law)
* Public transportation is cheap
* Cable television programming in hotels is lacking
* Jetlag means the day starts at 5:30am (every day)...for some, this is earlier
* Vendors are NOT aggressive
* You drive on the right, but walk on the left (most of the time)
* Trashbins are next to impossible to find
* There are no old cars

A year of following all the rules in the Bible

2007-09-26T20:14:00.000-07:00

My favorite BoingBoing post from today moved me to comment (#33). Lots of great comments!

Who else is using DOPPLR?

2007-09-25T13:19:00.000-07:00

I am now on DOPPLR...who else is using the site?

How high can you fly?

2007-09-24T13:25:00.000-07:00

This video is cool for a couple of reasons:

I used to work at Tekscan back in the '90s and Mike (the fellow explaining the sensor technology) was an old roommate of mine
In high school I very high vertical and fondly remember jumping over cars and hurdling all manner of things. However, the 45 pounds of mass that I've added since then have significantly curtailed my jumping abilities.

What do 110,078 people sound like?

2007-09-20T21:07:00.000-07:00

I am so happy it is football season again!

"We Are...Penn State" is the greatest chant. Hear what it sounds like when 110,078 people chant it!

Vinod Khosla doesn't understand why many people purchased hybrids

2007-09-14T15:37:00.001-07:00

While reading VentureBeat this morning, I saw this post about Vinod Khosla's opinion on hybrid buyers. His thoughts:

But hybrid electric cars won’t succeed, he said in an interview. You have to pay $5,000 more on a Prius in order to save half a ton of carbon a year, which is more than most consumers will go for, he explained. Buying hybrids “is mostly about personal guilt trips.” It’s like wealthy investors giving money to “art museums instead of to starving people” in Africa, he said.

He forgets a couple of things. For many, buying a hybrid wasn't about making them feel less guilty, it was about saving them time and money:

Time: at the pump (less trips to the gas station) & in the HOV lane if you were fortunate to get the HOV stickers.
Money: at the pump (get much more miles for your dollar) & with those HOV stickers, you get to sail right on through the carpool lane on the bridges, saving you $4 each day. Add the gas savings and the toll savings and you have at least $1500/year for a bridge commuter.

The HOV sticker deal is long gone (but may come back...fingers crossed), but there are many reasons why people buy what they buy. Is Toyota making money from Prius sales? Yes. Is the environment better off? Yes. Are the buyers of the Prius happy consumers? Yes.

Methinks Mr. Khosla is just trying to drum up interest in the areas that he invests.

Netflix removed Grind House from my queue

2007-09-11T20:39:00.000-07:00

While looking at my Netflix queue, I noticed the words "Click for Update" under Availability for the movie Grind House. When I click it, I get these words:

Update on Your Queue

Grind House has been removed from your Queue. We no longer have enough copies of the DVD to satisfy customer demand. Unfortunately, we are unable to purchase more of this movie and will no longer offer it for rental.

We realize this is disappointing and want to reassure you that we remove movies from our web site only in unusual circumstances.

We apologize for the inconvenience and hope you find many other movies to enjoy at Netflix.

How can they not be able to purchase more copies? Have Tarantino and Rodriguez decided not to sell anymore? Answer: Not exactly. The reason: the movie was still in my Saved section...it hadn't even become available yet. Or maybe the Weinstein Company doesn't want the masses to see it. Anyone know the real answer?

Update...Netflix just sent me an email:

As someone who added Grindhouse, we want to clarify some changes that were made to Your Queue. Grindhouse is available for rental as two movies: Grindhouse: Planet Terror and Grindhouse: Death Proof. As a result, Grindhouse was removed from Your Queue and replaced by Grindhouse: Planet Terror and Grindhouse: Death Proof.

STIRR Founder Hacks 2 - Wednesday, September 12 (San Francisco)

2007-08-29T12:08:00.000-07:00

We are pleased to announce FounderHacks 2 - Wednesday September 12th, 6pm in San Francisco!

What are Founder Hacks? There is no single playbook for how to grow a startup. Come hear some of the current tricks of the startup trade from financing to hiring to managing to scaling up and more. Each of our presenters are bringing one of their favorite hacks to share in STIRR's short-form format.

The Presenting Founders will kick things off around 7:30pm:

Patrick Koppula, Founder - Vadver
Scott Rafer, Founder - Lookery
To be announced...

Details

When: Wednesday, September 12th. Gathering begins at 6:00pm, talks at 7:30pm.
Where: Mighty, 113 Utah St, San Francisco
Cost: Founding Teams of internet, enterprise, mobile or bio/cleantech companies: $10 pre-event/$20 at the door. All others (consulting, hr, pr, legal, accounting, design, etc): $20 pre-event/$30 at the door.
Food: yes. Open bar from 6-7pm, no host bar after 7pm.
Pre-printed nametags will be ready at the door for all pre-paid registrants.
Register here

Bagged Half Dome again this past Saturday

2007-08-20T18:20:00.000-07:00

Details:
* We woke at 4:05am
* Hit the trail (from Curry Village) at 4:55am
* Top of Vernal Falls at 7am
* Top of Half Dome at 10:10am
* 9.6 miles and ~5000' of elevation in 5.25 hours!
* We left the top at 11:00am
* Back to Curry Village at 3:30pm (blisters slowed us down)
* We came back down a quicker route ( 9.0) miles in 4.5 hours!
* 18.6 miles in 9.75 hours
* After an hour nap and then a shower (no line!), we had some dinner (no line!) and homemade sangria

Cammy...very happy!

Use Twitter (and/or RSS) for improving corporate and municipal communications

2007-08-09T08:53:00.001-07:00

Seth Godin had a good post this morning about New York City's poor communication after yesterday morning's storm. His summary: "[in an emergency situation,] the first thing to rehearse is your communication strategy".

Earlier this year, I made a forecast that Twitter would mushroom as its commercial uses were adopted (see item #7). Several companies have began to use it. But it may prevail that the most useful uses for Twitter (and feeds in general) will come from municipal groups (some quasi-) alerting citizens of fires, earthquakes, SF weather, Atlantic hurricanes, etc. Digging around, I found that there a Bay Area Traffic Jam feed (though my bridge isn't covered) and a BART problem feed. Both are useful...but who knows about them?

The biggest problem isn't creating those feeds, it educating consumers how to use them. My girlfriend's 15 year-old brother doesn't know or Twitter . My mother doesn't know about them; nor does my brother or his kids. I would expect that 90% of America has no clue about them. So...the question...how do we educate people about using feeds?

What is up with Portfolio Magazine?

2007-08-08T14:11:00.000-07:00

Today, I was reminded of my Portfolio Magazine subscription when Valleywag wrote about their not-up-to-snuff website.

I commented about the lack of delivered issues (nothing since May) and decided to give their subscriber services department a call. Apparently, the May issue was just a Premier issue and the monthly editions commence this month. If your September issue doesn't arrive by Aug 31, then it is late. My only problem with that...it's not mentioned anywhere on their subscription site. (Note...this is not a recommendation to subscribe, simply a way for you to easily fact-check my statement.)

BTW...there was a bonus gift provided for 2-year subscribers: an umbrella (see that snazzy red/green there in the picture?). Mine was shipped in paper-thin cardboard and arrived in two pieces...so off to the trashbin it went. Did anyone else receive a broken umbrella? Why would they even bother offering a piece of crap thing like that anyway? Conde Nast must have had an extra few thousand green umbrellas laying around from a golf promotion and didn't know what to do with them.

Thanks, Portfolio Magazine...thanks for sending me a cheap-ass broken umbrella. How about some focus on those monthly magazines!

A gem of a hike in my backyard

2007-07-24T13:12:00.000-07:00

Last night, we drove up the road a few miles to check out a couple of abutting nearby parks: Garin/Dry Creek Pioneer Regional Parks in Union City. I was quite amazed! If you are looking for a great Bay Area place to hike, see great views, and be almost by yourself (we were on the trail with only one other hiker)...this is the place to do it! The park is open from 5am-9pm.

We started at 7:10pm and finished up around 8:55pm. Our route was the High Ridge Loop Trail ~ 5 miles. They charge $5 to park there, but only when the kiosk is manned (it wasn't when we dropped by). There were "signs" of cows, but we didn't see any.

This will be a great place to spend some time in the early morning getting ready for Half Dome in mid-August. I think Cassi (our dog) will like to join us there as well.

STIRR Founder Hacks was covered by the San Jose Mercury News

2007-07-21T08:57:00.001-07:00

Nice! STIRR and the Founder Hacks event made the cover of the Business section and here's some video of the night as well.

I'll add more to this post later...

Ready for Saturday!

2007-07-21T08:27:00.000-07:00

Last night, I was reading through some of the links on MyBlogLog that lead to my blog and I stumbled across this search phrase..."half dome jmt time running "how fast"" which led to my post of two years ago when I hiked half dome for the first time. Wake up call! I'm going back there in 4 weeks and am waaaaaay out of shape!

So, I decided to wake up and hit the gym early. Success...woke up at 6am and began my task to get back into (long-distance hiking) shape. After the gym, I picked up a copy of the San Jose Mercury News to see the article on STIRR (more on that in a later post).

Today's activities call for a pretty fun day: a brunch at a friend's house; 3/4 scale indy style racing at Malibu Grand Prix; and then dinner with some friends at Straits Restaurant at Santana Row to celebrate my bday.

I saw Sicko today

2007-07-20T12:32:00.001-07:00

Sicko is an eye-opener. This hurts a lot. The best question he poses..."who are we?" The answer is not one we aspire to.

He makes a good argument. We have free police, free fireman, free (pre-college) education, how can free healthcare be bad?

The moral of the story: don't get sick. And if you do, move to another country...

Go see it.

Demos at the STIRR FounderHacks event

2007-07-14T08:12:00.001-07:00

Sure, the presentations are one reason to come to the STIRR FounderHacks event. But we also have some great demos for you:

- share more content to more people in more places

- people-powered customer service

- a new Voice Entertainment Network

Get There Early...a new book from Institute for the Future

2007-07-06T13:57:00.001-07:00

Many of my friends and family are a bit baffled about what my employer does. I now have something nice to show them!

IFTF Distinguished Fellow, Bob Johansen, is soon releasing a new book called "Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present."

This new book explains how IFTF uses Foresight to Insight to Action, with a range of case examples drawn from the last 35 years of 10-year forecasting.

The official publication date is August 20, but you can pre-order it via Amazon.

An added bonus: the book's jacket is actually one of our maps. Enjoy!

Colin Bulthaup of Potenco visits IFTF

2007-07-03T15:51:00.000-07:00

Today, Colin Bulthaup, CEO of Squid Labs spin-off, Potenco, spoke about their pull-cord generator. Steve Cisler provides a great write-up on the visit.

In five years, you'll see pull-cord generators everywhere.

STIRR Founder Hacks - Wednesday, July 18, 2007

2007-07-03T13:35:00.000-07:00

We are happy to announce our next event: STIRR Founder Hacks! What are Founder Hacks? Tricks of the startup trade from financing to hiring to managing to scaling up and more. Each of our presenters are bringing one of their favorite hacks to share in STIRR's short-form format.

Presenting Founders:

Ted Rheingold, Top Dog, Dogster
David Marks, CEO, Loomia
David Weekly, CEO, PBWiki
Munjal Shah, CEO, Riya/Like.com

Details:

When: Wednesday, July 18th. Gathering begins at 5:30pm, talks at 7:00pm.
Where: Trader Vics, 4269 El Camino Real, Palo Alto, CA 94306
Cost: Founding Teams of internet, enterprise, mobile or bio/cleantech companies: $10 with RSVP ($20 at the door). All others (consulting, hr, pr, legal, accounting, design, vc/angel, etc): $20 w/ RSVP ($30 at the door).
Pre-printed nametags will be ready at the door for all pre-paid registrants. (Referrals welcome.)

The 2007 "summer song" will be Sean Kingston's "Beautiful Girl"

2007-06-28T14:28:00.000-07:00

I am a little bit late to state this this year (apologies!): Sean Kingston's "Beautiful Girl" will be the 2007 "summer song". I hit it on the nose last year with Gnarls Barkley!.

Any believers/dissenters out there?

The coming Reality Divide

2007-06-21T10:28:00.000-07:00

I am in San Diego this week for IFTF's Technology Horizons Abundant Computing Conference and we are wrapping up with a insights discussion right now. This is probably the most fun part of the event: take the past few days findings and in a group session, discuss insights and implications. (Part of our Foresight --> Insight --> Action process.)

One of the insights that I came up with the poor will have access to virtual, while the rich will get to experience the real thing. Jane McGonigal (my IFTF colleague) quickly called this the "Reality Divide".

Years from now, everyone will be able to view real-time, 4k (or greater) resolution of pretty much everything: the ocean floor, 3821 meters down; the Sistine Chapel, Machu Pichu, etc. However, I think the real desire (aspiration) will be to see it in real-life...and you'll need money to do that.

IFTF is seeking Boomers for a survey

2007-05-23T10:56:00.001-07:00

Are there any boomers out there who would like to be a part of our Boomer Survey?

The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is an independent nonprofit research group. We work with organizations of all kinds to help them make better, more informed decisions about the future. We provide the foresight to create insights that lead to action. We bring a combination of tools, methodologies, and a deep understanding of emerging trends and discontinuities to our work with companies, foundations, and government agencies.

We are currently recruiting for a new research study called "Boomers in the Next 20 Years". For the purposes of this study, people who were born between 1946 and 1964 qualify as Boomers, and you do not need to identify as a Baby Boomer to participate. The study is about how you will respond to the changes and challenges in the next 20 years. We want to know about your experiences and the decisions you are making and foresee making in the areas of health, finance, work, family and community.

Participation would include a response to this survey, followed by a brief telephone interview and a 2 hour interview in your home to be scheduled between June and August, 2007. Not all people who complete this survey will be selected for further interviews. Participants who complete of all phases of the project will be given a stipend of $100, paid by American Express gift card.

We are particularly interested in interviewing people who live within 100 miles of city center of these cities:

Denver, Colorado
San Francisco, California
Austin, Texas
Seattle, Washington
Miami, Florida
Louisville, Kentucky
Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota
New York, New York

Take our brief Recruitment Survey to get involved, or forward this message on to people you know who may be interested in participating. Thank you for your time!

If you have any questions about participating in the project, please direct them to mlueck AT iftf DOT org.

Thanks!

Sean Ness is more popular than Tiger Woods, Brad Pitt, Donald Trump and Bono!

2007-05-23T09:17:00.000-07:00

Well, at least that is, on Twitter. I don't use Twitter all that much...my last post was more than a one month ago (April 22). But while reading a Mashable post today about tweetVOLUME, I did the first thing anyone would do: ego search myself to see how many times my name has been Twittered. I ran a few names and phrases and discovered that my name has been twittered more than Tiger, Brad, Donald and Bono. This is a pretty good sign that the masses have not adopted Twitter yet...although it is catching (spoiler alert: very statistically sound methodology about to be used), as the following are all ahead of me: George Bush, Paris Hilton, Sanjaya & Steve Jobs (who happens to be #1 as far as I can tell).

If you find anyone more popular than Steve...post it in the comments!

Energy 101: How to present a real energy agenda

2007-05-19T08:08:00.000-07:00

On May 14th, President Bush presented his new energy plan to strengthen energy security and address climate change (he finally gets it!). After years of stating in his State of the Union address that America needs to wean itself of our foreign oil (six in a row with no action!), he introduces this dud of a plan: Twenty in Ten.

The good news is that we are nearing the end of his term and the Presidential hopefuls are coming up with real plans with real ideas. America needs to stop being coddled with low-cost energy and instead needs to be challenged and given real goals.

Yesterday, Bill Richardson released his own agenda (Sean note: this link does not seem to work right now) that is the type of prodding America needs. The five elements to his plan:

Cut oil demand: 50% by 2020. Increasing the gas mileage of the average car to more than 50 mpg is just one way to help achieve this goal. (Sean note: look at how pathetic the US is compared to rest of the world...including China!)
Change to Renewable Sources for Electricity: 50% by 2040. We could save customers $21 billion a year by 2020 by changing to alternative energy sources.
Dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions: 90% by 2050. We must set strict limits on emissions. We'll do it by instituting a market-based cap and trade system.
Restore America as the world's leader. We must return to the international negotiating table and support mandatory Kyoto-style limits on global warming pollution. (We balked
Get it all done without breaking the bank. By reducing oil imports and raising revenue from carbon permits, we will create more than 10 times more economic value that we spend to make this program happen.

Image credit: caramba4u

Want an 8 bedroom home for $345,000?

2007-05-18T14:24:00.000-07:00

My hometown of Smethport, PA, has many large houses on Main Street...homes where the elite of the time (late 1800s) lived. One of the houses is up for sale and it has some space, all for only $345,000!

Billiard Room: 17' x 26'
Sleeping porch: 9' x 31'
Bedroom 3: 18.6' x 15'
Bedroom 8: 19' x 13'

No wonder that a few of them have served as B&B's over the years.

What happens when oil starts to run out?

2007-05-03T16:32:00.000-07:00

Over the weekend, a new ARG called World Without Oil launched. Backed by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, it is a game that takes a look at oil dependency. One of the designers is my IFTF colleague, Jane McGonigal. It has been getting some good press!

Here are some words from Jane, lifted from BoingBoing (thanks Pesco!):

World Without Oil is a month-long collaborative alternate reality project funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and ITVS. It’s the first alternate reality game to tackle a real-world problem: oil dependency.

World Without Oil imagines we are already living on the other side of the “peak oil” moment. The alternate reality game presents a “reality dashboard” that updates daily with gas prices, fuel shortages, and measures of chaos, suffering and economic impact for different parts of the country. Players are invited to document their own lives in this new reality, through blog posts, videos, photos, web comics, geocaches, audio messages, and any other means necessary!

The goal of the project is to harness the collective intelligence of bloggers and gamers to create a bottom-up map of what it would mean to live through a massive oil shortage in the U.S. The project’s mantra: Play it, before you live it.

The game launched on Monday, and already there are hundreds of player created documents to browse—-not to mention the official “backstory” created by the game’s puppet masters..

The latest game updates include video footage of an underground car vandalism effort, instructions for how to throw fuel-free parties, and an eyebrow-raising transcript of the new secretary of state’s address to the nation.

Sign up to play now; the game runs though the first week of June.

Saturday wine tasting

2007-04-29T21:52:00.000-07:00

We went wine tasting on Saturday and visited several wineries in Napa. The Stags Leap District Winegrowers were hosting their annual Vineyard to Vintner (V2V) event and we hit most of them!

Nickel & Nickel - (not part of the event, but we had free access to their Spring Barrel Tasting.) Our favorites (out of the 13 tasted!) were the 2006 C. C. Ranch and Rock Cairn cabernets). The barrel room was absolutely beautiful!
Baldacci Family Vineyards - Tom Baldacci was cooking some nice sausage and steak on the grill in front of the cave. We learned his "secret" for tenderizing his steak and will be trying it out soon
Shafer Vineyards - Was pretty busy here. They have a great name, so not surprised.
Ilsley Vineyards - The tasting was out on the porch. Too bad the porch was small. We left shortly after arriving.
Silverado Vineyards - This place was BIG! Probably the most corporate on the Silverado Trail.
Taylor Family Vineyards - We met Jerry, Pat and Sandy. Bought a Reserve bottle here.
Pine Ridge Winery - Only offering two wines (a red and a white). The skewers off of the grill were quite tasty (serving both lamb and shrimp).
Steltzner Vineyards - They had the tasting in their cave and sampled a 1985 Cabernet...one of their oldest. Near the entrace, they keep many of their library wines...look for all the dust in the cabinets to the left.
Griffin Vineyards - Due to a trademark dispute, they are changing their name.
Hartwell Vineyards - Bob Hartwell was signing bottles and his Shih Tzu was leashed next to him. She was had quite a reserved temperament compared to another puppy I know...
Regusci Winery - Awesome tasting room...surrounded by boxes upon boxes of ancient vintages from around the Napa neighborhood

We've been to Chimney Rock Winery, Cliff Lede Vineyards and Robert Sinskey Vineyards before, so the only one that we really missed was Clos Du Val.

What did you do for Earth Day?

2007-04-22T17:40:00.000-07:00

We bought a Hybrid Civic. I like!

Wikipedia "occasional" word of the day: involution

2007-04-20T13:34:00.000-07:00

At an all-day meeting today, one of my colleagues used the word "involution", which made many a brow furl. What was that? What does that mean? How's that?

Three of us headed to Wikipedia for the translation and had a good time. The definitions led to many more raised brows and chuckles:

An involution is a function that is its own inverse, so that f(f(x)) = x for all x in the domain of f
Any involution is a bijection.
Examples of involutions include: identity map, circle inversion, the ROT13 transformation, and the Beaufort polyalphabetic cipher.

We know so little...

Would you like a Silverfish in your Laurel Glen Counterpoint Cabernet?

2007-04-17T16:32:00.000-07:00

How did you spend your last Friday evening? Mine started out quite well! I arrived home from work and dinner was all prepared. Once I changed, we began to eat. Our first response was...this wine isn't so good. It was an extremely cheap bottle, so we dumped it down the drain and then decided to open up something from a trip to Sonoma a year and a half ago: a 2001 Laurel Glen Counterpoint Cabernet Sonoma Mountain. I poured two glasses and we dug in. I heard Cammy give a yelp and a then a scream. She said that there was a worm in her wine. I took the glass, looked inside and my first thought was that it was some cork floating. Since the light by the couch was dark, I went into the kitchen to scoop the cork out with a spoon. Upon doing so, I quickly noticed that she was right, it was a bug. A nice wine-pickled Silverfish. Ugh! Yuck! Phooey! DISGUSTING! How the hell did that get there? What kind of an operation does Laurel Glen run? Uggggggggghhhhhh! This bottle, too, is dumped down the drain and we both pledged to never drink Laurel Glen again...

Oh...if you don't know what a Silverfish looks like, see below:

STIRR Founders Mixer 2.4 (Palo Alto, CA)

2007-04-11T07:19:00.000-07:00

The next STIRR Mixer is tonight (April 11) at Illusions in Palo Alto.

Presenters this month include:

applicationexchange.com, Tim Delhaes, CEO
edgeio, Keith Teare, Founder and CEO
Spinn3r, Kevin Burton, Founder and CEO
Xcellery, Reto Laemmler, Founder and CEO

Thanks to Pivotal Labs, SUN, and K&L Gates for being our sponsors!

Hope to see you there!

My household magazine subscriptions

2007-03-28T16:45:00.000-07:00

I noticed that the number of magazines that we subscribe to is getting to be pretty sizeable, so I thought I'd share the list to see how it compares to what others are reading.

Here goes:

7x7 San Francisco
Backpacker
Bon Appetit
Business 2.0
Business Week
C
Cuisine at Home
Eating Well
Fast Company
Food & Wine
Forbes
Fortune
Gourmet
Inc.
National Geographic
Outside
Portfolio
Portland Monthly
San Francisco
Self
Saveur
Star
Travel & Leisure
U.S. News & World Report
Us Weekly
Wired
Women's Health

What do you read? [Updated: August 9, 2007]

Who will be on the next Presidential tickets?

2007-03-27T15:25:00.000-07:00

My hunches:

Democrat: Richardson/Obama.

Republican: Giuliani/McCain

What do you think?

[Note: I am a bit biased and have contributed to the Bill Richardson for President campaign.]

Sunday was Napa wine tasting day

2007-03-26T07:54:00.000-07:00

The Silverado Trail Wineries Association had a weekend event where some of the lesser known wineries of Eastern Napa got together to promote themselves. We checked a few of them out, along with a few others (*), that were not part of the event.

Judd's Hill - A new vineyard, no longer on the hill.
Van Der Heyden Vineyards - Wine tasting or wine lecturing? We arrived and were seated while an employee held court and talked about the wine (but didn't feel it was important to pour). We made a move to leave, but the winemaker intercepted us and offered to help. Good that we stayed, as we found that they make an incredible late harvest cabernet (first time to see that!). They harvest the grapes in late November/early December. The 1997 was the best wine to ever set root(?) in my mouth. Purchased the 1997 and the 2002.
Hagafen Cellars - This one got crowded fast, so we didn't stick around too long.
Signorello Winery - Discovered that Mike looks like Ray Signorello, Jr.
* Chimney Rock Winery - We are members here. The red tasting was great...some high-end wines!
Robinson Family Vineyards - They have a nice, comfortable grassy area to relax.
* Robert Sinskey Vineyards - One of Mike's favorites. Nice kitchen next to the tasting area. Surprised that more wineries don't provide some good tasting food to complement the wine.
* Cliff Lede - We are members here. Relaxed and picked up an order of Howell Mountain Poetry.
* St. Supery - Not on the Silverado Trail...but it was getting late and we wanted to hit one more winery.

We'll be back in a couple of weeks...Chimney Rock has a wine mixing event.

STIRR Sydney announces their presenters for next week

2007-03-23T12:41:00.000-07:00

STIRR Sydney host Martin Wells lists the next wave of startups at the next Sydney STIRR Mixer on March 29th:

Omnidrive - WebFS
Rave About It
dLook
3eep
Booking Angel

STIRR Alumni in the News!

2007-03-22T20:44:00.000-07:00

Congrats to the following STIRR Alumni for making some noise this month!

(STIRR 1.8) has received $1 million in funding

(STIRR 2.3) is profiled in a NY Times story, "Start-Up Aims for Database to Automate Web Searching"

(STIRR 1.1) is profiled in a Forbes story, "The Ebay of Loans"

(STIRR 2.1) is profiled in a Forbes story, "Send in the Clouds"

How fast if your finger?

2007-03-15T09:46:00.000-07:00

Over on Gizmodo, I saw this post that looks at reaction time. I was 0.219 seconds on all three trials (male/athelete/non-gamer/not tired). I am bookmarking the test so that I can re-test myself after a couple of glasses of wine. How fast are you?

Why Cisco is buying WebEx

2007-03-15T08:40:00.000-07:00

I heard about this on the morning news and then read Arrington's take on it. This was my comment there:

Simple: Cisco is buying a channel for its TelePresence system. It is all about hardware and displays.

I later clarified more:

Sorry…it’s all about Cisco harware and their HD TelePresence displays. Once you’ve used their TelePresence system you’ll understand. It is like using broadband for the first time…once you’ve tasted speed, you don’t want to go back to dial-up.

We will soon all have HD displays in our living rooms. Cisco already owns a good chunk of the set-top market with their acquisition of Scientific-Atlanta. Throw a camera in that and voila…a home-basedTelePresence system (a few years away yes…as the home broadband speeds are not yet up to snuff).

The WebEx acquisition simply gives Cisco more sales inroads into companies that desire a better experience.

[Update: Cool! BusinessWeek's blog, "The Tech Beat", has listed my TelePresence channel strategy idea as a possible reason.]

STIRR Sydney 2 is on March 29th

2007-03-12T23:17:00.000-07:00

The Aussies are back at it! On March 29th, they'll have their second STIRR event in Sydney. Will you be down under at the end of the month? If so, head on over to Ivory. Presenters lined up (so far) include: Omnidrive & Rave About It. Good luck to organizers Martin Wells & Mick Liubinskus.

STIRR Founders Mixer 2.3 (Palo Alto, CA)

2007-03-12T13:44:00.000-07:00

The next STIRR Mixer has been announced for March 21st at Illusions in Palo Alto.

Presenters this time include:

Buxfer, Ashwin Bharambe, Chairman
Criteo, Jean-Baptiste Rudelle, CEO
Metaweb, Jamie Taylor, Minister of Information
Wrike, Andrew Filev, Founder

We may add one or two more before next week. Hope to see you there!

Thanks to SUN & their Startup Essentials Program for being our sponsor!